Why there won't be an altseason in the next Bitcoin halving if no alt season now

The cryptocurrency market is characterized by cyclical patterns, with Bitcoin halving events often acting as catalysts for significant price movements.

Benjamin

• Updated: Tuesday, July 01, 2025, 07:02

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At a Glance

• High Bitcoin Dominance: As of June 2025, Bitcoin's market dominance is around 64%, above the threshold needed for an altseason, indicating investor preference for Bitcoin.
• Institutional Focus: Institutional investors are heavily favoring Bitcoin, particularly through Bitcoin ETFs, limiting capital flow to altcoins.
• Regulatory Challenges: Altcoins face significant regulatory scrutiny, deterring investment and potentially suppressing altcoin rallies.
• Lack of Speculative Momentum: Without retail enthusiasm or new altcoin narratives, the speculative drive for an altseason is absent.
• Market Evolution: The crypto market's increasing maturity may disrupt traditional altseason patterns post-halving.

The cryptocurrency market is characterized by cyclical patterns, with Bitcoin halving events often acting as catalysts for significant price movements. These halvings, occurring roughly every four years, reduce the block reward for miners, increasing Bitcoin's scarcity and historically driving price surges. Following these surges, alternative cryptocurrencies (altcoins) often experience a period of outperformance known as an "altseason," where they see substantial price gains relative to Bitcoin. However, if no altseason occurs in the current market cycle (post-2024 halving), it is likely that the next Bitcoin halving in 2028 will also not trigger an altseason. This article explores the reasons behind this potential outcome, focusing on market dynamics, investor behavior, regulatory pressures, and the evolving role of Bitcoin in the crypto ecosystem.

An altseason is a period when altcoins—cryptocurrencies other than Bitcoin—outperform Bitcoin in terms of price appreciation. This typically occurs when investors shift capital from Bitcoin to altcoins, seeking higher returns in riskier assets. Historically, altseasons have followed Bitcoin halvings, which occur approximately every four years when the reward for mining new Bitcoin blocks is halved. This reduction in supply often leads to Bitcoin price increases, attracting new capital to the crypto market, which then flows into altcoins. Notable examples include:

• 2016 Halving: Followed by a significant altcoin rally in 2017, with altcoins like Ethereum and Ripple seeing exponential gains.
• 2020 Halving: Preceded a 2021 altseason, where altcoins surged as Bitcoin stabilized after reaching new highs.

Altseasons are driven by speculative enthusiasm, retail investor participation, and compelling narratives around altcoin projects, such as decentralized finance (DeFi) or non-fungible tokens (NFTs). However, the absence of an altseason in the current cycle suggests that these drivers are not currently present, and this trend may continue into the next halving.

As of June 2025, the cryptocurrency market is not experiencing an altseason. Bitcoin dominance, which measures Bitcoin's market capitalization as a percentage of the total crypto market, stands at approximately 64%. This is significantly above the threshold necessary for an altseason to begin. High Bitcoin dominance indicates that investors are favoring Bitcoin over altcoins, limiting capital rotation into riskier assets.

Moreover, Bitcoin's price has surged to over $108,000, driven by factors such as institutional adoption and favorable political developments. In contrast, altcoins have faced significant declines, with over $300 billion in market value wiped out, underscoring a lack of investor interest. This disparity highlights a market environment where Bitcoin remains the primary focus, and altcoins struggle to gain traction.

We have identified specific conditions that typically precede an altseason:

• Bitcoin Dominance Below 56%: A decline in Bitcoin dominance signals capital rotation into altcoins.
• Bitcoin Breaking All-Time Highs: A new Bitcoin price peak often stabilizes the market, encouraging investors to seek higher returns in altcoins.
• Increased Altcoin Trading Volume: A spike in altcoin trading volumes reflects growing investor interest and liquidity.

None of these conditions are currently met, as Bitcoin dominance remains high, and altcoin trading volumes have not surged significantly. This suggests that the market is not primed for an altseason in June 2025.

Several factors contribute to the absence of an altseason now and could persist, impacting the likelihood of an altseason post-2028 halving:

Bitcoin's dominance at 60% reflects a market preference for Bitcoin's perceived stability and liquidity. This high dominance is a barrier to altcoin rallies, as it indicates that capital is concentrated in Bitcoin rather than flowing into altcoins. If this trend continues, it could suppress altcoin performance leading up to and following the 2028 halving (TradingViewTradingView).

The cryptocurrency market has seen increased institutional participation, particularly through Bitcoin-focused financial products like spot Bitcoin ETFs. In the first half of 2025, Bitcoin investment products accounted for nearly 84% of crypto exchange-traded product inflows, totaling $14.9 billion. This institutional focus on Bitcoin, driven by its regulatory clarity and status as a "digital gold," limits capital available for altcoins, reducing the likelihood of an altseason.

Altcoins face greater regulatory scrutiny than Bitcoin, with many projects classified as securities or facing legal challenges. High-profile cases, such as those involving Ripple, highlight the risks associated with altcoin investments. Regulatory uncertainties deter both retail and institutional investors, who may prefer Bitcoin's relatively clearer regulatory status. If these challenges persist, they could continue to suppress altcoin performance through 2028.

Global economic conditions, such as high interest rates or economic uncertainty, influence investor risk appetite. In such environments, investors tend to favor safer assets like Bitcoin over speculative altcoins. Additionally, the lack of new, compelling narratives in the altcoin space—such as the DeFi or NFT booms of previous cycles—reduces investor enthusiasm. Without significant technological breakthroughs or market catalysts, altcoins may struggle to attract capital.

Altseasons are often fueled by retail investor enthusiasm and speculative fervor, driven by fear of missing out (FOMO). However, after multiple boom-and-bust cycles, retail investors may be more cautious, particularly given the underperformance of many altcoins during bear markets. The absence of significant retail participation or new altcoin projects with strong narratives further dampens the speculative momentum needed for an altseason.

Historically, altseasons have followed Bitcoin halvings, with notable rallies occurring 6-12 months after the event. For example, after the 2016 halving, the altcoin market cap surged by 4,050% by January 2018, and post-2020 halving, it rose by 1,788% within a year. However, the 2024 halving has not yet produced a sustained altseason, despite initial expectations of a rally by early 2025. This deviation suggests that market dynamics are not solely driven by halving events but are also influenced by broader factors like institutional adoption, regulatory developments, and economic conditions.

If the current conditions—high Bitcoin dominance, institutional focus, and regulatory challenges—persist, the next halving in 2028 may not trigger an altseason. The increasing maturity of the crypto market, with Bitcoin solidifying its role as a store of value, could disrupt traditional patterns of capital rotation into altcoins.

While current trends suggest no altseason in 2028, certain developments could alter this outlook:

• Decline in Bitcoin Dominance: A significant drop below 56% could signal the start of an altseason, as seen in previous cycles.
• New Altcoin Narratives: Breakthroughs in altcoin technologies, such as advancements in DeFi, AI, or blockchain scalability, could attract investor interest.
• Regulatory Clarity: Clearer regulations for altcoins could boost investor confidence and capital inflows.
• Retail Investor Resurgence: A renewed wave of retail enthusiasm, driven by FOMO or market hype, could spark an altcoin rally.

Without these catalysts, the market is likely to remain Bitcoin-centric, with altcoins struggling to gain traction.

The absence of an altseason in June 2025, driven by high Bitcoin dominance (around 64%), institutional preference for Bitcoin, regulatory uncertainties, and a lack of speculative momentum, suggests that the conditions for an altcoin rally are not currently present. If these dynamics persist, it is likely that the next Bitcoin halving in 2028 will also not trigger an altseason. The cryptocurrency market is evolving, with Bitcoin increasingly viewed as a safe haven asset, while altcoins face challenges in attracting capital. While historical patterns suggest altseasons follow halvings, the current market environment indicates a potential shift away from this trend. Investors should monitor Bitcoin dominance, regulatory developments, and emerging altcoin narratives for signs of change, but as it stands, the outlook for an altseason post-2028 halving remains cautious.

This article was originally published on: Jul 1, 2025 at 07:02 AM

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